'Blue Shift' From US Mail Ballots Might Cause Election Week Unrest
2020-09-16
LRC
TXT
大字
小字
滚动
全页
1When voting stations closed in Arizona on Election Day in 2018, Martha McSally appeared to have won a seat in the United States Senate.
2McSally, the Republican Party's candidate, received the largest number of votes based on results from in-person voting.
3But her lead disappeared in the days that followed, with the counting of mail-in ballots.
4"Electoral corruption - call for a new election?" President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter at the time.
5His suggestion had no effect. Six days after Election Day, McSally confirmed that she had lost to Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic candidate.
6A similar "blue shift" - with blue representing Democrats -- could play out in the U.S. presidential election on November 3.
7Some observers say Trump, a Republican, could have the most votes in early election returns but that Democrat Joe Biden could end up the winner in the days that follow.
8Nearly half of Democrats say they plan to vote by mail.
9Only about one fourth of Republicans plan to do so.
10That information comes from an opinion study of likely voters by Reuters/Ipsos.
11Demand for mail-in voting is driven, in part, by fear of infection from the coronavirus in public.
12Counting mail-in ballots is often slower because officials must open thick envelopes, inspect the ballots, and confirm voters' identities.
13The process is slower and more complex than that at polling stations, where voters mark ballots in person.
14Biden's campaign is reportedly preparing for Trump to say that the election is being stolen as the lead changes.
15Even some Republicans worry that Trump might use the situation to question the results if he loses.
16"The longer it takes to count absentee ballots, the more the narrative will take hold among Trump supporters and will be their 'proof' to question unfavorable election results," said Dennis Darnoi.
17He is a Republican political strategist based in Michigan.
18Trump has made unproven claims that mail voting leads to fraud.
19Many studies, however, show that voter fraud in the United States is extremely rare.
20Trump has not said whether he will respect the election results if he loses.
21In more than 30 states, election officials can begin processing or even counting ballots before Election Day.
22These include states considered "battleground states" -- where races between the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees have been historically close.
23But three states considered among the most competitive - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - bar officials from processing or counting ballots before Election Day.
24This may create delays in the results.
25Rick Hasen is a law professor at the University of California at Irvine.
26He notes that, "If the election comes down to these states, and everyone is waiting on results, I'm concerned about social unrest. This is especially true if Trump is ahead on Election Day."
27Trump campaign spokeswoman Thea McDonald told Reuters news agency that Democrats are creating disorder by pushing 'conspiracy theories.'
28"President Trump and his campaign are fighting for a free, fair...election in which every valid ballot counts - once," she said.
29A winner in the presidential race might be known quickly if states such as Arizona and Florida publish results shortly after polls close.
30Both states have a long history of mail-in voting.
31"The most likely scenario is that we'll know who the president is on Election Night," said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida.
32Florida election officials, for example, will begin opening and confirming ballots at least three weeks before the election.
33They are not, however, permitted to count the results to know which candidate is ahead during that time.
34U.S. presidential elections are decided by an Electoral College, not the popular vote.
35This means results in a battleground state like Florida, with 29 of the 270 electors needed to win, could decide the election results once its own vote counts are known.
36In Michigan, an effort to process ballots a day before Election Day has failed to move forward.
37Some Republicans have argued that it might permit local officials to influence the results.
38Ruth Johnson is the Republican state senator who proposed the bill to process ballots early.
39Johnson said she did not know why the state's Republican Senate Majority Leader had yet to act.
40"It needs to be a priority, and I believe we do have the votes," she said.
41Thea McDonald of the Trump campaign said it is "opposed to election officials knowing - and potentially attempting to change - the running tally before Election Day."
42I'm Ashley Thompson.
1When voting stations closed in Arizona on Election Day in 2018, Martha McSally appeared to have won a seat in the United States Senate. McSally, the Republican Party's candidate, received the largest number of votes based on results from in-person voting. But her lead disappeared in the days that followed, with the counting of mail-in ballots. 2"Electoral corruption - call for a new election?" President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter at the time. His suggestion had no effect. Six days after Election Day, McSally confirmed that she had lost to Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic candidate. 3A similar "blue shift" - with blue representing Democrats -- could play out in the U.S. presidential election on November 3. Some observers say Trump, a Republican, could have the most votes in early election returns but that Democrat Joe Biden could end up the winner in the days that follow. 4Nearly half of Democrats say they plan to vote by mail. Only about one fourth of Republicans plan to do so. That information comes from an opinion study of likely voters by Reuters/Ipsos. Demand for mail-in voting is driven, in part, by fear of infection from the coronavirus in public. 5Counting mail-in ballots is often slower because officials must open thick envelopes, inspect the ballots, and confirm voters' identities. The process is slower and more complex than that at polling stations, where voters mark ballots in person. 6Biden's campaign is reportedly preparing for Trump to say that the election is being stolen as the lead changes. Even some Republicans worry that Trump might use the situation to question the results if he loses. 7"The longer it takes to count absentee ballots, the more the narrative will take hold among Trump supporters and will be their 'proof' to question unfavorable election results," said Dennis Darnoi. He is a Republican political strategist based in Michigan. 8Trump has made unproven claims that mail voting leads to fraud. Many studies, however, show that voter fraud in the United States is extremely rare. 9Trump has not said whether he will respect the election results if he loses. 10In more than 30 states, election officials can begin processing or even counting ballots before Election Day. These include states considered "battleground states" -- where races between the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees have been historically close. 11But three states considered among the most competitive - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - bar officials from processing or counting ballots before Election Day. This may create delays in the results. 12Rick Hasen is a law professor at the University of California at Irvine. He notes that, "If the election comes down to these states, and everyone is waiting on results, I'm concerned about social unrest. This is especially true if Trump is ahead on Election Day." 13Trump campaign spokeswoman Thea McDonald told Reuters news agency that Democrats are creating disorder by pushing 'conspiracy theories.' 14"President Trump and his campaign are fighting for a free, fair...election in which every valid ballot counts - once," she said. 15A winner in the presidential race might be known quickly if states such as Arizona and Florida publish results shortly after polls close. Both states have a long history of mail-in voting. 16"The most likely scenario is that we'll know who the president is on Election Night," said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida. 17Florida election officials, for example, will begin opening and confirming ballots at least three weeks before the election. They are not, however, permitted to count the results to know which candidate is ahead during that time. 18U.S. presidential elections are decided by an Electoral College, not the popular vote. This means results in a battleground state like Florida, with 29 of the 270 electors needed to win, could decide the election results once its own vote counts are known. 19In Michigan, an effort to process ballots a day before Election Day has failed to move forward. Some Republicans have argued that it might permit local officials to influence the results. 20Ruth Johnson is the Republican state senator who proposed the bill to process ballots early. Johnson said she did not know why the state's Republican Senate Majority Leader had yet to act. 21"It needs to be a priority, and I believe we do have the votes," she said. 22Thea McDonald of the Trump campaign said it is "opposed to election officials knowing - and potentially attempting to change - the running tally before Election Day." 23I'm Ashley Thompson. 24The Reuters news agency reported this story. Ashley Thompson adapted it for VOA Learning English. George Grow was the editor. 25_________________________________________________________________ 26Words in This Story 27shift - n. a change in position or direction 28narrative- n. a story that is told or written 29envelope - n. an enclosing cover for a letter, card, etc. 30strategist -n. a person who is skilled in making plans for reaching a goal 31fraud - n. the crime of using dishonest methods to take something valuable from another person 32ahead - adv. in the lead in a race or competition 33scenario - n. a description of what could possibly happen 34priority - n. something that is more important than other things and that needs to be done or dealt with first 35potentially - adv. capable of becoming real 36tally - n. a recorded count of scores, votes, etc.